Modellering ecosysteemdiensten onder invloed van klimaat en stikstof

Flip Witte, Yuki Fujita, Ruud Bartholomeus, Bernard Raterman & Karin Rood

atmosferische depositie, ecosysteemdiensten, klimaatverandering, kustduinen, vegetatiesuccessie

Vegetation dynamics in dry coastal dunes

atmospheric deposition, ecosystem services, climate change, coastal dunes, vegetation succession

Climate change may have large impacts on water-limited ecosystems and their services. On top of this, increased atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition will add effects on ecosystems services in the near future too. Process-based models will help predicting such changes in ecosystem services. Yet the existing models are not able to project the long-term effects due to lack of interacting processes of water, soil, and vegetation. In this study, we deveoped an integrated model by dynamically coupling a module for water transport in the unsaturated zone, a module for soil organic matter and a vegetation module. The model predicts three ecosystem services (groundwater recharge, reduction of nitrogen load to groundwater, and vegetation biodoversity) under different climate and N deposition scenarios. It explicitly takes into account long-term feedback mechanisms of vegetation on hydrology and soil. The model was able to reliably mimic ecosystem properties, though we had some doubts about the simulated ecosystem development under a warm and dry climate scenario. Further model development will be needed to properly predict ecosystem services in a reliable manner, such that the results will support policy makers and managers of coastal dunes to optimally conserve and develop our coastal dunes in a changing world.